Something else no one seems to be talking about. Nvidia’s chips are made in Taiwan by TSMC. What happens if China invades in the next year or two? Which is probably very high on the minds of Chinese leadership because they’ll never have another opportunity, hopefully, where our military has been degraded by the incompetence of Pete Hegseth and a president who can be talked into anything by saying “Sir, you’re a great and strong leader chosen by God. And here’s some really delicious chocolate cake”.
Something else no one seems to be talking about. Nvidia’s chips are made in Taiwan by TSMC. What happens if China invades in the next year or two?
ASML will brick the machines and the chinese will only be able to look at them and try to copy them, which will take years, even assuming that chinese are already able to builld something like ASML’s machines, which I doubt (if they would be able they would not need Taiwan).
Taiwan will sabotage infrastructure in such a scenario, but this line of analysis seems nonsensical. Incorporate Taiwan in to China and the world loses the ability to manufacture some chips that the West are reliant on which further solidifies China’s influence globally. Others will be forced to buy technology from China, even if it’s not as advanced as what Taiwan sold before. Who else is manufacturing these things? Not America.
Taiwan will sabotage infrastructure in such a scenario, but this line of analysis seems nonsensical. Incorporate Taiwan in to China and the world loses the ability to manufacture some chips that the West are reliant on which further solidifies China’s influence globally.
Except I would bet that it would be faster for ASLM to provide another machine somewhere else than and restart the production (even assuming that all the production is done in Taiwan) than for China to duplicate the machine. And this assuming, as I said, that China is already able to produce what is needed, else you need to add the time China would need to built the machines used to build the ASLM machines. Knowing what to build is different to being able to do it.
Others will be forced to buy technology from China, even if it’s not as advanced as what Taiwan sold before. Who else is manufacturing these things? Not America.
Or just buy machines from ASLM and start producing, for example, in Europe, Japan or everywhere else.
But as I said, even China cannot do without Taiwan, they need the chips TMSC and other are producing and they know that when the first soldier put a foot on Taiwan, the machines stop. And in the remote case they where able to size the machines before ASLM could brick them, to destroy such machines you just need an open port, it is really easy to destroy them, not considering that they need a lot of specialized people to run it and a lot of specialized parts and consumable, that ASLM will not send anymore.
China doesn’t need Taiwan. America needs Taiwan.
China need what is in Taiwan but know that they cannot take it without destroying it.
The military was enshitified before Smegmeth got there. The current level of incompetency and impotency couldn’t have happened over night. It’s taken decades to hollow out. There was some foreshadowing for how the Iran War would go when Biden tried to get the navy to build a supply pier. They had to hire maritime contractors to do it since the navy apparently doesn’t have that vital capability anymore.
The fact of the matter is that Taiwan could easily handle being attacked since it already has a very capable military and invading a across a body of water is like the single hardest thing to pull off.
The US Navy is kept there on “guard duty” in order to burn money and enrich contractors. If it had any deterrence value then it certainly won’t after the Iran War.
This is why I own some Intel shares despite not having any faith they will catch up to any of its competitors. China might make it so that it doesn’t need to catch up.
They really do have a golden opportunity. Most countries are dependent on them for trade, the US military is drifting wildly, China has just demonstrated that they can influence oil markets far greater than anyone else, and China is are the point were if they don’t take it in the next few years that they might not have the chance ever again.
There is a chance that China make a move and nobody comes to defend Taiwan because they know the alternative is worse for themselves.
Something else no one seems to be talking about. Nvidia’s chips are made in Taiwan by TSMC. What happens if China invades in the next year or two? Which is probably very high on the minds of Chinese leadership because they’ll never have another opportunity, hopefully, where our military has been degraded by the incompetence of Pete Hegseth and a president who can be talked into anything by saying “Sir, you’re a great and strong leader chosen by God. And here’s some really delicious chocolate cake”.
ASML will brick the machines and the chinese will only be able to look at them and try to copy them, which will take years, even assuming that chinese are already able to builld something like ASML’s machines, which I doubt (if they would be able they would not need Taiwan).
Taiwan will sabotage infrastructure in such a scenario, but this line of analysis seems nonsensical. Incorporate Taiwan in to China and the world loses the ability to manufacture some chips that the West are reliant on which further solidifies China’s influence globally. Others will be forced to buy technology from China, even if it’s not as advanced as what Taiwan sold before. Who else is manufacturing these things? Not America.
China doesn’t need Taiwan. America needs Taiwan.
Except I would bet that it would be faster for ASLM to provide another machine somewhere else than and restart the production (even assuming that all the production is done in Taiwan) than for China to duplicate the machine. And this assuming, as I said, that China is already able to produce what is needed, else you need to add the time China would need to built the machines used to build the ASLM machines. Knowing what to build is different to being able to do it.
Or just buy machines from ASLM and start producing, for example, in Europe, Japan or everywhere else.
But as I said, even China cannot do without Taiwan, they need the chips TMSC and other are producing and they know that when the first soldier put a foot on Taiwan, the machines stop. And in the remote case they where able to size the machines before ASLM could brick them, to destroy such machines you just need an open port, it is really easy to destroy them, not considering that they need a lot of specialized people to run it and a lot of specialized parts and consumable, that ASLM will not send anymore.
China need what is in Taiwan but know that they cannot take it without destroying it.
The military was enshitified before Smegmeth got there. The current level of incompetency and impotency couldn’t have happened over night. It’s taken decades to hollow out. There was some foreshadowing for how the Iran War would go when Biden tried to get the navy to build a supply pier. They had to hire maritime contractors to do it since the navy apparently doesn’t have that vital capability anymore.
The fact of the matter is that Taiwan could easily handle being attacked since it already has a very capable military and invading a across a body of water is like the single hardest thing to pull off.
The US Navy is kept there on “guard duty” in order to burn money and enrich contractors. If it had any deterrence value then it certainly won’t after the Iran War.
A lot of people have been talking about this.
Have a link to anything?
This is why I own some Intel shares despite not having any faith they will catch up to any of its competitors. China might make it so that it doesn’t need to catch up.
They really do have a golden opportunity. Most countries are dependent on them for trade, the US military is drifting wildly, China has just demonstrated that they can influence oil markets far greater than anyone else, and China is are the point were if they don’t take it in the next few years that they might not have the chance ever again.
There is a chance that China make a move and nobody comes to defend Taiwan because they know the alternative is worse for themselves.