Those are the costs but aren’t there also earnings? The study seems to ignore the fact that money not spend in the US will be spend in the EU27.

Even if it where true: That is money well spend. 115 billion over 10 years is not that much for 27 countries combined anyway.

Afaik the EU27 public expenditure for 2025 alone was 9.32 trillion[1]. So we are talking about ~11 billion a year vs 9.32 trillion which is ~0.1% of public expenditure of the EU27. I think if we want we can handle that.

[1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/GOV_10A_MAIN/default/table?lang=en

Edit:

Am I right in thinking that the study does recognize a spending shift towards the EU but doesn’t treat that shift as an offset against the 115 billion?