Hasn’t ASML had a years-long waiting list even in the pre-AI times? They are literally the only game in town for advanced EUVL. China may be making DUV functional using heavily modified nodes and heavy subsidies to account for poorer yield and more expensive processes, but the entire world’s modern EUV chip supply runs on ASML. And because they are so incredibly complex, there is a limited supply of people competent to build and service those machines, meaning they can only produce so many machines per year anyway.
Even if the AI bubble bursts, I don’t see how anything would change except how many years out ASML is tracking to-be-fulfilled orders.
Is there gold in them thair hills? We talk to a shovel salesman to find out!
Fears? My fear is that the boom will continue.
I don’t think this really means anything for the actual AI bubble. Of course the chip makers are buying more chip-making machines now their orders have gone through the roof and they can ask 5x the price for the same damn chips.
The usefulness of LLM’s hasn’t changed that much. They are still being massively overvalued and OpenAI still earned 30% less than what they were projected to earn.
I just hope ASML is locking the chip makers tf into their contracts so they can’t cancel their orders when their self-blown bubble finally bursts.
It is kind of strange, when you have a monopoly to build a machine, but only a hand full of customers that are buying them. Suddenly the monopoly isnt worth as much anymore.
The monopoly is also being eaten away a bit by China. I haven’t seen any actual results of chips from their latest machines, but seeing what they accomplished with their other tech…. They have mastered the art of corporate espionage and reverse engineering.
Isn’t the chip production pipeline like 5 years long?
I guess one could say that this means chipmakers are betting there’s still gonna be that much chip demand in 5 years.
