Not going to happen. Meanwhile, models are becoming insanely capable and efficient, such as Opus 5.5.
Fantastic. That’s USD 750 per Earth inhabitant. You could feed all of humanity for this, with is what is essentially needed.
Now all that is pissed away. We had our chance and threw it away.
I’m pretty sure Ed Zitron has been keeping pretty good accounting numbers. Whether you think his predictions are right or wrong (the hype has outlived even my expectations), I think he’s right about how much debt has been generated vs how much cash will be needed to service that debt and it seems highly unlikely that we aren’t letting these companies pretend there’s a pot of gold under every blade of grass to our own detriment.
If it didn’t make sense, that’s because it’s early and I just woke up.
Anthropic is claiming its total addressable market is over $30tn, so it’s all good, right? (No, that’s obviously crazy)
AI lab Anthropic, reportedly on the verge of a $2 trillion IPO, is preparing to tell investors that its total addressable market is worth more than $30 trillion, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
To put that figure in perspective, it eclipses the total GDP of China, is roughly equal to the entire GDP of the U.S., and represents about a quarter of the total world GDP of $120 trillion.
I wonder how much of that proclaimed TAM will be addressed with open models. I’m running Qwen 3.8 27B on my 7900 XTX and have no need to give Anthropic or OpenAI any of my money or data.
Eh total addressable market is such a meaningless figure anyway. Total addressable market is everyone who has a device that they can use AI from, multiplied by the average annual cost of using them. Plus every company that exists in the world, multiplied by how much the AI spend is for the average company. Plus every government in the world. Etc. Boom, 30 trillion. It’s like a super optimistic “this is the maximum that any AI company could ever earn per year if they controlled the whole market and everyone who could use AI is a paying customer”.
That 2 trillion valuation they seek is hella bogus either way. For 30 trillion actual revenue with any real profit margin, it would be low, but we all know they’re not bringing in trillions in revenue.
The catch is that’s the amount of money it’ll be after inflations boom ;)
Eff Bain. They say whatever suits the moment. They did over a company I used to work for. The company went bankrupt and laid off employees.
That’s government money.
It’s proof of unsustainable AI bubble. Can’t hit those numbers. https://lemmy.ca/post/71626228/25584891
Imagine if this was invested in arresting climate change.
Instead they are literally posting trillions into accelerating climate change.
And arresting dissenters and innocent bystanders
And homelessness, and actual education for people.
Yeah, “and”.
You could probably actually solve a lot of problems in the world with this money.
We always have money for other stuff.
Revenue is not profit. How are they going to pay their debts, for example? 6T in (fantasised) ARR is already about a third of US Fortune 500 total revenue over 2025, 21T. Good luck with that lol.
Their argument is going to be that AI is so good, it’ll just replace half of the Fortune 500 with their own agentic AI.
It’s so delusional.
Like fuck everything AI creates is so generic and bland even generic and bland corporate output looks nice.
I don’t know.
There is a ton of corporate email pushers and power point makers which could be replaced by an AI model I think.
The current issue they are struggling with is figuring out who they can blame when it fucks up. At some point they will land on an answer that to that. We are literally in the age of people copy pasting AI output into emails. At some point that’s gotta give.
I mean, yes, but they can’t be replaced by AI because AI does the job better, they can be replaced by AI because they produce nothing of actual value.
That’s the consumer side. The boring bland generic is pretty decent for code if the operator isn’t a slop zombie
All of those DRAMs you can’t buy are in that number.
I guess the $6tn is also including wages not being paid. They think they can just pocket the pros of AI and leave the rest of the world population with the cons. A small analogy. If nobody does large agriculture, there won’t be many tractors and tools sold and maintained. There won’t be cheap grain to be processed into convenience food, animal feed, booze. With those there won’t be food, meat, dairy and eggs for the masses which again needs specialised tools and machinery. You can keep going with this into increasingly miniscule economic sectors.
The point I want to reach is drawing the picture of a propellerheaded youth sawing into the branch on which he is sitting - and with him the whole family of H.Sapiens.
Just another food for thought. Scientists expect the next ice age in 10 millennia but we are about to loose our advanced and highly specialised society to a manmade global warming. We surely won’t be dying out anytime soon I believe, but neither will we be to go into that ice age as an advanced society.
Even then. Let’s say that Ed Zitron has all the numbers wrong here and they’re actually double, just for the sake of the argument: that would mean OpenAI and Anthropic would have a current yearly revenue of 164.4b$. (And as said, they don’t!). Even if you double the Meta, Microsoft, Google revenue you’d still be at a mere 260b$. Even hilariously exaggerating the numbers doesn’t even come close to the completely insane 6T!
That’s just like my opinion. They think it’s worth that because their customers won’t need a single employee or very few. In many sectors manpower is the largest recurring position that can’t just sit there and be resold like land or a building. Manpower goes “stale” if it isn’t productive. A factory with bots can be shut down if needed and rebooted anytime goods or orders accumulate. Creativity can’t really be forced and with ai and enough input an “ideal model” of how the product should look like can just be remodeled and repainted to fit the newest trend.
That’s what every company might try, ditch their human employees for some ai agent and ai tokens, that might be where the $6tn comes from. A very big bubble blowing up and exploding right after the masses missed their third meal facing food anxiety, desperation, anger and going after anybody that looks vaguely rich to shatter their bones to suck their bone marrow. I hope Elmo gets it first.
Off topic, I know, but I’m curious what you’re reading about the next ice age. Always found that history interesting, but never thought to look toward the next one.
I frequent museums quite a lot and natural history is part of a lot of exhibits. They agree that we are on top of a warm cycle that keeps warming up because of man made factors.
Since we are disturbing the natural cycle in a way that is detrimental to the fundaments of our society, agriculture, it’s argued this will affect us during our lifetime - like it currently does, but worse is to come.For the ice ages of the past my understanding is that many many humanoids migrating from africa and evolving into different branches of homo have gone extinct during the ice ages.
My opinion is, we could see waves of refugees that brought down ancient and advanced societies like the hithites. Might be the hithites went down because they had to abandon their home because of drought. Ancient egypt, being forced into its knees, barely surviving, is a better studied era. Basically, bad times that has a global effect, people who can’t cope seek refuge in less affected or richet places, overburdening them and creating a domino effect of refuge seeking. This creates an armed cycle spiralling the world into chaos and taking away from and effectively disabling history writing and sciences, plunging the world deeper into the pit since the skills, tools and institutions needed for education and science are cultivated over many generations of itterations. Once shut down and anybody - able to use and create those tools, the knowledge to educate and do science, understand and derive knowledge from books and data - died off you can’t just boot it up again but have to create it from scratch.
Waiting for the bubble to pop. I need a new GPU and maybe a SSD.
Unfortunately the bubble popping will not provide you with better or cheaper access to those. At this point it is artificially created scarcity because they don’t want consumers to own hardware anymore. Even with the AI bubble popping, the tech oligarchs (with NVIDA at the helm) will still be pursuing their wet dreams of consumers having to subscribe to their cloudbased computers for everything.
I will quit the internet before I become a renter of everything I used to just use free.
You might, I think I would (at least personally, professionally I may not have a choice) but the vast majority of people will gladly go with this plan I suspect.
Look at car purchasing, most people don’t look at the sticker price or the total cost of ownership, they stop paying attention as long as their income can (and in a lot of cases it technically can but really shouldn’t) support the monthly payment.
Similar thing with new phones, most people buy a service plan that includes a lease or loan on a device. Very few people buy their sevice outright, because that’s a big purchase vs. a smaller monthly payment.
If there was a market for this for laptops, regular folks would eat it up.
That’s all opinion, so take it for what it’s worth. I hope I’m wrong. I’m fearful I’m not.
I love computers but never enough to participate in their plans.
I know how to read. Write. Draw. Go on walks. Play sports. Basically sit and watch paint dry than give a shit about not using a computer again
Free or one time purchase and possible payments for once in a while big updates. I don’t mind paying when the offer is good and I have money.
I am not paying google shit. Or any of them. I will join a privateering crew first.
Other manufactures will arise then. Won’t be quick, won’t be painless, but the US is not the whole world.
You seem pretty sure about that. But where was the competition when they forced the switch to CD’s? The manufacturers are engaged in a shit-trust, and other anti-competitive behavior.
No one will step up.
Thats not… I feel like you weren’t alive yet when that transition happened.
Because CDs are objectively better in basically every way than VHS and cassette, especially for consumers. No more tapes stuck in the player, no more rewinding, no more randomly unspooled tapes, no more twisted ribbons, no more seeking static, no more heat warping, etc. plus cds take up less space overall, and you can easily use many-disc cd changers.
The market absolutely drove that transition, not manufacturers. VHS and cassette were still supported and produced for a LONG time after cds came about, because not everyone was willing to drop a ton of money to get their collection in a new format.
Also just to add that the transition from tapes to CDs and DVDs took decades, by the time tapes finally were fazed out blueray was a thing. I have a copy of Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkeban on VHS that’s what 04 I also have a copy of Sabatons Great War album on cassette because fuck it why not. Even now cassette still kinda alive.
CD’s are not better. They scratch easily, and the players break. Like right away. I have vhs that still work, no cd player still works outside of a laptop or game consul, and the disks scratch and get ruined.
That you think they are better, ruins your credibility with me personally on this. You clearly don’t fucking get it.
I’m going to have to agree with the other guy. I have working VHS tapes and working CDs/DVDs that are both over 30 years old. That just means that you didn’t abuse them and kept them away from bad temperature and humidity ranges. CDs were so much better than cassettes that it wasn’t even funny. If you were abusing your CDs so much that they were getting scratched to hell, I can’t imagine you weren’t running into similar issues with your tapes. DVD were vastly better than VHS in much the same way. And the “better” wasn’t even about durability which was probably a wash as they failed in different ways. CDs had better audio quality and better quality of life for the user. You had no need to rewind/fast-forward. The audio didn’t get continually more staticy as time went on. They took up less storage space, especially if you used a CD wallet/book. You didn’t need to clean the heads on a CD player. All these same issues applied to DVD vs VHS other than skipping around a DVD is less common than a CD as movies and shows tend to be viewed sequentially.
Wow. Ok have fun with that personality… eesh.
Oh, the personality of not believing the oligarchs in the face of some credulous half wit? I will, thanks.
I assure you, if you are a brokie like the rest of us, you will not have the money to spare in the ensuing recession. Honestly I expect personal computing is dead, likely for a decade or more, if it ever comes back.
From one brokie to another, drowning in debt is indistinguishable from drowning in debt with a GPU and SSD.
Last night, my friends and I were talking about how we’re trying to spend more time at home to save money. Instead of going out to a bar, we’re starting to plan more hangouts at home. Why spend $2k/month on rent if we aren’t going to be there? It feels like anytime I leave the house, I’m spending $100 or more. We all were at a bar last weekend watching college football, and after spending $10/drink, we dipped out, bought $50 in beer and pizza, and played Mario Kart at a friend’s house. Much cheaper to just play games at home and hangout.
Yeah, there is also speculation that part of this build out is intended to force a shortage to get everyone to shift to thin client “cloud PCs” where everyone can be monitored and ad blockers can be avoided.
That shift has already happened.
People on this forum trend to use personal computers but most people now only use phones. They might have a laptop provided by work but many don’t own one at all.
The push to “the cloud” happened ten years ago. The people around here are the exception.
A phone is not “the cloud”
For most people it is. If you removed Internet access from the device what do you think people would say?
9 out of 10 apps are just web apps with a launcher and stop working the moment you disable data.
And how is that any different than a desktop tower?
I can run LLMs locally on my desktop tower. I can run CAD Software and create things. There is a large number of tasks my desktop can do that a phone can’t for a number of reasons not the least that using a phone without their app stores is becoming increasing difficult.
Just because you might just use yours as a thin client for Chrome doesn’t make me wrong.
With the amount of integration it achieved to facilitate services and transactions? I am very skeptical of that. I expect to happen a serious market feagmentation and a great number of bankrupties but the void will be filled by new presences.
It wont be like dead dead, but just stagnant. Companies like nvidia will just sell the barely passable hardware with even less reason to upgrade because the prices will rise and the performance jumps will decrease. The good thing is that even the entry level hardware was already good enough for 95% of use cases and what justified upgrades anyway was mostly AAA gaming graphics slop or heavy 3d renders for professionals.
The bad news is that entry level hardware will cost more than high end hardware did last year
and they already bought years worth of chips, so no computing for a long time.
afaik they havent, they committed to buying them, so they will be built, and when they dont buy them because they are insolvent, we should be able to get them at good prices
https://thedeepdive.ca/openai-locked-up-40-of-global-ram-with-no-obligation-to-buy-any-of-it/
ez, just do some more hyperinflation. That’ll be about enough to buy a bag of rice
I can check my wallet but I’m pretty sure I can’t swing that
I don’t know if I have $6T in product recommendation questions
An entirely reasonable sum.
I’ll get my big wallet, I better give them $7tn those poor billionaires.
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