CEO says his products are worth more and will continue to increase in value.
Shocking.
Fucking cartel bastards.
Buy now! Quickly! Things will only get worse if you wait! I’m telling you this because I’m such a nice guy!
– Salesman
So, should I hold onto my 8GB SODIMM or should I cash in?
Guy selling memory says buy memory now it’s only going to get more expensive?
Right? In what world? This year we saw CXMT come online and they claim they’re going to handle most of China’s supply, so that’s a whole fucking country Micron/SK/Samsung are losing on. Then also we’ve seen datacenter buildouts slowing down and not being financed. So supply is going up and demand is going down. Now I’m not a big city economist, but in my books all that points to at minimum not the situation getting worse.
Might Micron be a bit sad they left the consumer market who is frothing at the mouth for RAM?
It’s almost as if they’re trying to sell as much as possible now, at what is likely to be the peak price for a long while …
That’s why they decided to fix the prices for the next few years.
“Please keep piling on the hype fomo train we have every single one of our eggs in this one basket”
deleted by creator
I’m getting Chinese ram then fuck it.
That sounds like it would chafe terribly…
Still a lot cheaper than fuckin’ Micron’s RAM right now.
chafes less than getting fucked by criminal profiteering
Make sure to use silicone based lubricant; that, at least, doesn’t require any rare earth metals.
So… How those Chinese ram sticks are going ? Good, nice, now i gonna ditch another segment of western market for affordable asian tech…
Is the western market going to allow that or are they going to ban it because “security reasons”.
Luckly i don’t live in a ditatorship like u.s., i just gonna get myself two sticks once Aliexpress start to sell it
Right now they want it banned because “they stole the tech”
sorry bud but if you have the patent and artificially keep demand high and supply low, you don’t deserve that patent.
Didn’t they literally steal a lithography machine? Nothing is ever a security threat to some of you till you wake up with your roof gone and bank being empty.
My bank accounts empty and zero of that was paid to china, all us companies taking all my money, fuck em.
What do you mean they’re taking your money? Sue then? Or do you mean “I pay for services”?
EDIT: Stupidity aside, I do have to stress that yes, you will be poorer as for many governments, alot of income comes from chip manufacturing and related industries. After China stole the secrets and machine, they will now take your social funds.
Micron CEO said they expected industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, but couldn’t predict when supply would catch up with demand.
Why would they want balanced supply and demand? Scarcity affords them a higher margin for the same output. With so few competitors there currently seems to be little reason for them to try and meet demand.
They should go the whole way, and stop making RAM completely. That should send their profit margins to the moon.
Infinite margin! 🫦
That’s not how supply and demand works. When a market is out of economic equilibrium like this, with demand sharply rising, that is literally what drives competitors to arise and to try to increase supply to match. This is fertile ground for exactly that outcome to happen.
Have to dig into the nuance of this specific scenario.
A new memory vendor would be a huge capital expense, and investors are generally a bit apprehensive about that.
Further, it would be years before they could theoretically roll out product, a delay that investors would need to be awfully patient for under the best of circumstances. Further, we went through this dance in recent history, people thinking that the chip industry needed huge advancement and expansion of supply, only for demand to subside to normal before any of that expansion could even start.
And the stated payoff? Lower margin product than competition. Not exactly exciting to tell your investors your whole game plan is to make less money than your competition.
Then there’s the reality that this is not an innate direct demand of memory for the sake of memory, it is intrinsically linked to these big AI companies, leading to the big question: Is this a bubble that has a risk of popping? If so, then the market will go poof before you have a single item shipped.
Even if broadly, you think the AI is viable, if any one company, especially OpenAI, gets left behind, the memory market could collapse. If not for Sam Altman’s very specific purchasing commitments, the memory pressure would probably be much more modest.
Ok, fine, you are a ride or die believer in the durability of the AI boom and that every company is going to win. However, even if the AI companies do very well, what’s to say they will still have the same appetite for hardware by the time this new enterprise gets going? A pivot from aggressive training to exploiting more what they have done, or some breakthrough that dramatically takes down their bloated memory requirements. If you believe in the AI boom, then just directly investing in the AI companies is the safer bet.
At the end of the day, an investor has a choice between being confident in the AI boom and investing directly in the AI companies, or being a bit less confident and investing in the memory vendors that are making bank now with a weaker, but still viable post-pop story. If you aren’t comfortable directly investing in the AI companies now, then you almost certainly aren’t comfortable with a long shot that only benefits if the AI boom keeps going exactly the way it has been going.
Yes, effort is underway to do this in China, but it’s more about supply chain sovereignty than free market interests. It may have similar benefits, but here the free market is unlikely to be the impetus for increased supply in this scenario.
cough cough barriers to entry cough cough
What ever in the name of Supply Side Jesus are you talking about? The FREE MARKET surrounds us always, its INVISIBLE HAND guides all economic transactions to their most EFFICIENT outcomes without the need of any human intervention!
Blocked for heresy!
If you ever want to leave behind the economic fairy tales we tell children and college freshmen:
This of course assumes the bubble doesn’t pop, and is presumably driven by memory purchase contracts with AI companies consuming all supply at peak pricing with 5-year terms. If OpenAI or Anthropic run out of investor money tomorrow, those contracts will be worthless and supply will recover (even if HBM capacity can’t be instantly reconfigured to consumer).
While I don’t expect it tomorrow, OpenAI has signaled a future of constant price increases with their new $500 monthly tier replacing their $200 tier, and it’s likely we’re in the start of the death spiral as subsidized supply ends, demand plummets in response, and unprofitable companies start folding. But the AI market market has remained irrational for much longer than it should have.
(Just a reminder to roll back your overclocks while we huddle for warmth during tech winter.)
My youtube algorithm is filled with AI doom/truthsayers and it feels like everybody else is taking crazy pills. Ed Zitron is a bit theatric but there’s nothing factually wrong with his arguments. Eli the Computer guy explains it in plain language that would be easily refutable should a refutation exist. I’m not shorting anything but I’m certainly not going out of my way to add any funds with significant exposure to AI companies.
The hidden variable is how much money can the us treasury print to keep the ai bubble going. Nobody knows that, could be one trillion more and the system collapsed, could be maybe the debt needs to double to $80T before collapse.
At this point, with trump and the tech billionaires in charge, they’re just going to keep printing money until they can’t.
It’s definitely barreling towards us… I’m hoping it’s a disatrous OpenAI IPO that does it, because it’s easy enough to understand, but it will probably be a chain reaction starting from some minor event that is gonna take a 5-hour Youtube to fully explain.
I wish Jenny Nicholson was on this beat.
When I built my 5800X3D/7900XTX PC, my research told me I’d need a 5090-class GPU to make my 5800X3D a meaningful bottleneck. As the 7800X3D and 9800X3D were released I could not afford a GPU that would make me want/need to upgrade my CPU. I will not have the fastest PC for the next few years but I can’t imagine 5090-class GPU performance being available for less than US$1000 before DDR6 is mature.
I will never understand people feeling the need to have the fastest PC. A PC that’s 80% as fast as the fastest PC costs less than half the price. The word “future-proof” gets thrown around so much I feel its a meaningless expression. Very few people can give a legitimate reason to need top end equipment such as a 5090.
In 2023 when I built my PC and ran a benchmark and it said I had a top 3% PC (now top 7%) I was PROPER chuffed. 3DMark is the ultimate pay-to-win and there I was with my lower middle-class-salary (and no kids). I have low double digits in gaming hours on the machine in the last two years and pretty much use it as an HTPC. I just loaded up the Witcher 3 Remastered and maybe I just don’t like gaming. I have a 5700X3D/9070XT as a backup and an 11600K/6900XT as a backup-backup. I had grand dreams of sim racing and local LLM and retro gaming and nah.
Of course it will
😑
